How to Build 2026 Business Projections Without the Overwhelm

Marcela Shine
Dec 18, 2025
3 min read

That 2026 projections spreadsheet keeps getting pushed to ‘later,’ doesn’t it?

Not because you don’t care. Because projections make you get specific. They show you the tradeoffs you’ve been avoiding. They reveal where growth actually comes from (and where it doesn’t).

And that’s uncomfortable.

Running a business without projections? That’s flying blind. You’re making decisions, sure.

But you have no idea where you’re headed or what the numbers are actually telling you.

Here’s a practical way to fix that.

1. Model Two Scenarios (Not One, Not Ten)

One projection? That’s just guessing with confidence. Ten projections? That’s paralysis analysis.

Two is the sweet spot:

Conservatively right: revenue you’re confident you can hit based on what already works.
Exciting but possible: revenue that requires deliberate investment to scale, not just more hustle.

For example: If this year landed around $120k, ‘conservatively right’ might be $135k based on repeat clients and steady demand.

‘Exciting but possible’ might be $170k, but only if you invest in something that scales, like paid media, partnerships, or expanding a proven offer.

The point is understanding what changes between the two scenarios.

2. Use Projections to Decide Where to Invest (Not Just Whether to Grow)

Your growth isn’t stalling because you’re not working hard enough. It’s stalling because you’re doing too many things at once.

Instead of jumping straight to “Can I hire help?” ask this instead: “What investment would make my time more effective?”

Things like:

Email systems that actually convert
Scheduling tools that reduce back-and-forth
Bookkeeping that gives you real visibility

We’re talking hundreds of dollars a month, not thousands. And they can actually free up your time instead of just burning cash. Your projections should show whether those investments support growth or just add cost.

3. Account for Seasonality In Your Business (The Good and The Bad)

Seasonality isn’t just about the busy times. It’s also about the slow ones. And yeah, they’re coming.

Most small businesses have predictable periods of expansion and contraction, even if they don’t label them that way.

If Q1 is consistently slower, that’s not failure. It’s a pattern.
If Q4 reliably spikes, that’s not luck. It’s leverage.

Your projections should show both. That way, slow periods don’t freak you out and busy periods don’t make you overcommit.

4. Build Projections You Can Explain Without Opening the Spreadsheet

If you can’t explain your projections without opening the spreadsheet, they’re too complicated.

This is what you should be able to say:

“I have two core offers. One is steady year-round. One is seasonal. Growth comes from increasing volume in the steady offer or investing to scale the seasonal one.”

That’s the kind of clarity that makes people listen. Judges, grant reviewers, partners, and lenders care less about your fancy formulas and more about whether the numbers make sense.

5. Use Projections to Face the Hard Truths Early

Projections feel uncomfortable because they show you what you can’t do. And nobody likes that.

If the ‘exciting’ scenario requires higher prices, fewer clients, or upfront spend, that’s a real choice.
Ignoring the projections doesn’t make the tradeoff go away. It just delays it until it’s forced on you.

Good projections don’t make the hard decisions disappear. They just let you face them before you run out of money.

Bottom Line

Projections aren’t about predicting the future.

They’re about reducing surprises and making smart choices before you run out of money, time, or energy.

They help you see what’s realistic, what requires investment, and where seasonality will work for or against you.

Want help working through this step by step?

We run free, live workshops focused on building clear, usable projections for 2026. The goal is to move from vague ideas to numbers you can actually use to make decisions.